Maccabi Ashdod vs Holon Yermiyahu Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Maccabi Ashdod
Sep 30, 2026 - 17:00
1.33 1.27
Holon Yermiyahu
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Maccabi Ashdod opened at 0 against Holon Yermiyahu in the Liga Alef. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Maccabi Ashdod from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Maccabi Ashdod -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Holon Yermiyahu than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Maccabi Ashdod -0.25
@ 2.51
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.27
Price Advantage
+10.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.83 / 1.83 -0.25 2.46 / 1.90 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.51 / 1.90 -0.25 2.51 / 1.90 — 0
Bet365 0 1.90 / 1.90 0 1.90 / 1.90 — 0
1xBet 0 1.83 / 1.83 -0.25 2.48 / 1.88 — -0.25
BetVictor -0.25 1.93 / 1.93 -0.25 2.20 / 1.71 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
xG 1.33 / 1.27 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.51
Maccabi Ashdod @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.27
Maccabi Ashdod @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.51 vs 2.27
Market price is 10.6% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.40 4.40
-1.00 5.40 3.50
-0.75 3.58 2.59
-0.25 2.48 1.88
0 2.11 1.61
+0.25 1.75 1.44
+0.75 1.39 1.21
+1.00 1.22 1.09
+1.50 1.14 1.05

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.90 1.90

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.26 1.93
-0.25 2.20 1.71
0 1.92 1.47
+0.25 1.63 1.34
+0.50 1.47 1.32

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.30 4.45
-1.00 5.30 3.50
-0.75 3.58 2.62
-0.25 2.46 1.90
0 2.10 1.62
+0.25 1.73 1.43
+0.75 1.38 1.21
+1.00 1.22 1.09
+1.50 1.14 1.06

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.12 2.53
-0.50 2.86 2.16
-0.25 2.51 1.90
0 2.17 1.60
+0.25 1.81 1.43
+0.50 1.60 1.34
+0.75 1.43 1.29
Primary Bets
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