Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Hapoel Bnei Musmus Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
Oct 09, 2026 - 12:00
1.20 1.40
Hapoel Bnei Musmus
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed opened at -0.25 against Hapoel Bnei Musmus in the Liga Alef. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.18
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed +0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.43
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.43 AH points more toward Hapoel Bnei Musmus than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Hapoel Bnei Musmus +0.25
@ 1.77
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.43
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.59
Price Advantage
+11.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.62 / 1.77 -0.25 2.62 / 1.77 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.65 / 1.77 -0.25 2.65 / 1.77 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.29 / 1.63 -0.25 2.29 / 1.63 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.18
xG 1.20 / 1.40 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.62
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.70
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.62 vs 2.70
Market price is 3.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.95 3.96
-1.00 5.90 3.08
-0.75 3.90 2.38
-0.25 2.65 1.77
0 2.29 1.52
+0.25 1.85 1.39
+0.75 1.46 1.18
+1.00 1.28 1.07
+1.50 1.17 1.04

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.29 1.63
0 2.02 1.42
+0.25 1.70 1.31

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.95 3.96
-1.00 5.90 3.08
-0.75 3.90 2.38
-0.25 2.62 1.77
0 2.29 1.52
+0.25 1.85 1.38
+0.75 1.46 1.18
+1.00 1.28 1.07
+1.50 1.17 1.04
Primary Bets
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