Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ironi Baka El Garbiya
Oct 10, 2026 - 12:00
1.32 1.28
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ironi Baka El Garbiya opened at -0.25 against Hapoel Nazareth Illit in the Liga Alef. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ironi Baka El Garbiya -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Hapoel Nazareth Illit than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Ironi Baka El Garbiya -0.25
@ 2.48
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.30
Price Advantage
+7.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.46 / 1.85 -0.25 2.46 / 1.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.48 / 1.85 -0.25 2.48 / 1.85 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.20 / 1.70 -0.25 2.20 / 1.70 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.46
Ironi Baka El Garbiya @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Ironi Baka El Garbiya @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.46 vs 2.30
Market price is 7.0% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.55 4.40
-1.00 5.45 3.42
-0.75 3.58 2.52
-0.25 2.48 1.85
0 2.13 1.60
+0.25 1.77 1.44
+0.75 1.41 1.21
+1.00 1.23 1.08
+1.50 1.14 1.05

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.20 1.70
0 1.92 1.47
+0.25 1.63 1.34

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.55 4.40
-1.00 5.45 3.42
-0.75 3.58 2.52
-0.25 2.46 1.85
0 2.13 1.60
+0.25 1.77 1.43
+0.75 1.41 1.21
+1.00 1.23 1.08
+1.50 1.14 1.05
Primary Bets
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