Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
Oct 06, 2026 - 09:00
1.32 1.28
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.50
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 4 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm opened at -0.25 against Hapoel Umm al-Fahm in the Liga Alef. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 4 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 4 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Hapoel Umm al-Fahm than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm -0.25
@ 2.84
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.30
Price Advantage
+23.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 4 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.59 / 1.73 -0.25 2.70 / 1.69 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 2.78 / 1.94 -0.50 2.78 / 1.65 — 0
Bet365 0 2.02 / 1.78 0 2.02 / 1.78 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.62 / 1.73 -0.25 2.66 / 1.70 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.70
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.70 vs 2.30
Market price is 17.4% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.00 6.85
-2.00 9.00 6.05
-1.50 6.35 3.42
-1.25 3.82 3.08
-1.00 5.45 2.77
-0.75 4.20 2.21
-0.25 2.66 1.70
0 2.33 1.48
+0.25 1.94 1.37
+0.75 1.56 1.15
+1.00 1.36 1.08
+1.25 1.28 1.18
+1.50 1.23 1.06

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 2.02 1.78

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.60 6.75
-2.00 9.00 6.00
-1.50 6.40 3.34
-1.25 3.82 3.05
-1.00 5.55 2.74
-0.75 4.20 2.17
-0.25 2.70 1.69
0 2.35 1.47
+0.25 1.95 1.36
+0.75 1.55 1.15
+1.00 1.37 1.08
+1.25 1.28 1.19
+1.50 1.24 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.78 1.65
-0.25 2.84 1.47
0 3.19 1.29
+0.25 2.47 1.34
+0.50 2.12 1.36
Primary Bets
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