Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Guabirá Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Oct 12, 2026 - 19:00
1.52 1.42
Guabirá
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 2 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Gualberto Villarroel SJ opened at -0.25 against Guabirá in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 2 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Gualberto Villarroel SJ -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 2 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward Guabirá than the current market.

Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 valid books · 100% agreement · Insufficient

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.54 / 3.08 -0.25 1.54 / 3.08 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.55 / 3.09 -0.25 1.55 / 3.09 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
xG 1.52 / 1.42 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.54
Gualberto Villarroel SJ @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.20
Gualberto Villarroel SJ @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.54 vs 2.20
Market price is 30.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 5.15 10.00
-2.00 4.50 9.20
-1.75 3.34 8.60
-1.50 2.81 6.90
-1.25 2.53 6.55
-1.00 2.24 6.15
-0.75 1.93 4.34
-0.25 1.55 3.09
0 1.36 2.77
+0.25 1.28 2.20
+0.75 1.15 1.74
+1.00 1.06 1.52
+1.25 1.05 1.42
+1.50 1.04 1.33
+2.00 1.02 1.13

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.34 8.80
-1.50 2.81 6.90
-1.25 2.52 6.55
-1.00 2.24 6.15
-0.75 1.91 4.33
-0.25 1.54 3.08
0 1.36 2.77
+0.25 1.28 2.19
+0.75 1.14 1.72
+1.00 1.06 1.52
+1.25 1.05 1.41
+1.50 1.04 1.33
Primary Bets
More