Barnsley U21 vs Hull City U21 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Barnsley U21
Final Score
0 – 2
(HT 0-1)
Hull City U21
Kick-off 12:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Barnsley U21 opened at -0.25 against Hull City U21 in the Professional Development League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.33 / 1.27
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Barnsley U21 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Hull City U21 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Hull City U21 +0.25
@ 2.48
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+38.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:56
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.72 / 2.49 -0.25 1.73 / 2.46 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.76 / 2.59 -0.25 1.85 / 2.48 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.74 / 2.49 -0.25 1.74 / 2.46 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 6.05 8.70
-2.00 5.35 7.90
-1.75 3.96 7.33
-1.50 3.20 5.25
-1.25 2.92 4.89
-1.00 2.62 4.50
-0.75 2.17 3.28
-0.25 1.74 2.46
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.43 1.92
+0.75 1.25 1.55
+1.00 1.13 1.38
+1.25 1.11 1.31
+1.50 1.09 1.26
+1.75 1.05 1.17
+2.00 1.04 1.09
+2.50 1.02 1.06

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 6.05 9.20
-2.00 5.35 9.30
-1.75 3.96 6.70
-1.50 3.20 5.25
-1.25 2.92 4.90
-1.00 2.62 4.50
-0.75 2.17 3.28
-0.25 1.73 2.46
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.43 1.90
+0.75 1.25 1.55
+1.00 1.13 1.38
+1.25 1.11 1.31
+1.50 1.09 1.26
+1.75 1.05 1.17

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.02 2.74
-0.25 1.85 2.48
0 1.63 2.25
+0.25 1.51 1.98
+0.50 1.43 1.78
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More