Guabirá vs The Strongest Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Guabirá
Final Score
3 – 1
(HT 1-0)
The Strongest
Kick-off 21:15 Stadium Estadio Gilberto Parada

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Guabirá opened at 0 against The Strongest in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Guabirá from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.18
Guabirá +0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.37 / 1.57
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Guabirá -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.43
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.43 AH points more toward The Strongest than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
The Strongest +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.43
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.61
Price Advantage
+70.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:30
Opening
0
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.77 / 1.90 0 1.77 / 1.90 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.90 / 2.33 -0.25 1.84 / 2.46 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.06 / 1.70 -0.25 1.91 / 2.53 — -0.25
Bet365 0 1.70 / 2.10 -0.25 1.85 / 2.75 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.92 / 2.35 -0.25 1.86 / 2.51 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.94 / 2.34 -0.25 1.84 / 2.54 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.77 1.90

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.80 10.50
-2.00 7.10 10.00
-1.75 4.90 7.70
-1.50 3.88 5.85
-1.25 3.50 5.41
-1.00 3.14 5.00
-0.75 2.48 3.52
-0.25 1.86 2.51
0 1.59 2.17
+0.25 1.43 1.82
+0.75 1.23 1.44
+1.00 1.10 1.27
+1.25 1.09 1.22
+1.50 1.07 1.18
+1.75 1.03 1.11

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.65 5.75
-1.50 3.70 6.40
-1.25 3.45 6.00
-1.00 3.00 5.75
-0.75 2.38 3.80
-0.50 2.08 3.10
-0.25 1.85 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.95
+0.50 1.35 1.72
+0.75 1.25 1.55
+1.00 1.14 1.38
+1.25 1.12 1.30
+1.50 1.12 1.26
+1.75 1.14 1.18

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.47 2.59
-0.50 2.10 2.62
-0.25 1.84 2.54
0 1.58 2.19
+0.25 1.44 1.83
+0.50 1.41 1.63
+0.75 1.42 1.46

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.90 9.20
-2.00 7.10 9.00
-1.75 4.95 7.60
-1.50 3.90 5.80
-1.25 3.50 5.40
-1.00 3.14 4.95
-0.75 2.46 3.50
-0.25 1.84 2.46
0 1.60 2.15
+0.25 1.43 1.78
+0.75 1.22 1.43
+1.00 1.11 1.27
+1.25 1.09 1.22
+1.50 1.07 1.18
+1.75 1.03 1.11

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.16 3.17
-0.75 2.50 3.15
-0.50 2.16 2.87
-0.25 1.91 2.53
0 1.62 2.20
+0.25 1.45 1.85
+0.50 1.36 1.64
+0.75 1.30 1.47
+1.00 1.30 1.30
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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