Unión Adarve vs Móstoles Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Unión Adarve
Oct 11, 2026 - 10:00
1.44 1.16
Móstoles
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Unión Adarve opened at -0.25 against Móstoles in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.25
Unión Adarve -0.25

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Unión Adarve -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.00
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Decision
LEAN
Unión Adarve -0.25
@ 2.58
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.00
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.00
Price Advantage
+29.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.49 / 1.85 -0.25 2.49 / 1.85 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.58 / 1.89 -0.25 2.58 / 1.89 — 0
Bet365 0 2.05 / 1.75 0 2.05 / 1.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.52 / 1.85 -0.25 2.52 / 1.85 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.25
xG 1.44 / 1.16 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.58
Unión Adarve @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.00
Unión Adarve @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.58 vs 2.00
Market price is 29.0% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.10 4.15
-1.00 5.25 3.28
-0.75 3.58 2.52
-0.25 2.52 1.85
0 2.15 1.59
+0.25 1.77 1.44
+0.75 1.41 1.21
+1.00 1.25 1.09
+1.50 1.16 1.06

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 2.05 1.75

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.20 7.80
-1.50 6.10 4.15
-1.25 4.35 3.74
-1.00 5.25 3.28
-0.75 3.58 2.52
-0.25 2.49 1.85
0 2.15 1.59
+0.25 1.77 1.42
+0.75 1.41 1.21
+1.00 1.25 1.09
+1.25 1.19 1.14
+1.50 1.16 1.06

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.93 2.16
-0.25 2.58 1.89
0 2.23 1.60
+0.25 1.86 1.44
+0.50 1.64 1.35
Primary Bets
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