Fernando De La Mora vs Benjamín Aceval Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Fernando De La Mora
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Benjamín Aceval
Kick-off 22:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Fernando De La Mora opened at 0 against Benjamín Aceval in the Division Intermedia. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.24 / 1.36
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Fernando De La Mora 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Benjamín Aceval than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Benjamín Aceval 0
@ 1.95
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.86
Price Advantage
+4.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
0
21:16
Last Pre-Match
0
21:59
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.73 / 1.93 0 1.80 / 1.85 0 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.91 / 1.77 0 1.80 / 1.88 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.51 0 1.81 / 1.88 0 +0.25
Bet365 0 1.95 / 1.85 0 1.85 / 1.95 0 0
1xBet 0 1.91 / 1.77 0 1.80 / 1.88 0 0
BetVictor 0 1.59 / 1.75 0 1.63 / 1.70 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.80 1.85

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.90 5.15
-1.25 4.50 4.99
-1.00 4.10 4.33
-0.75 2.97 3.08
-0.25 2.15 2.21
0 1.80 1.88
+0.25 1.53 1.60
+0.75 1.28 1.30
+1.00 1.14 1.16
+1.25 1.10 1.13
+1.50 1.10 1.11

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.90 6.40
-1.50 4.50 5.00
-1.25 4.10 4.50
-1.00 3.70 4.10
-0.75 2.85 3.10
-0.50 2.38 2.60
-0.25 2.10 2.30
0 1.85 1.95
+0.25 1.60 1.70
+0.50 1.48 1.55
+0.75 1.35 1.40
+1.00 1.23 1.26
+1.25 1.19 1.23
+1.50 1.17 1.19
+1.75 1.12 1.13

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.63 1.70

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.90 5.15
-1.25 4.50 4.50
-1.00 4.10 4.33
-0.75 2.97 3.08
-0.25 2.12 2.21
0 1.80 1.88
+0.25 1.53 1.58
+0.75 1.28 1.30
+1.00 1.14 1.16
+1.25 1.13 1.13
+1.50 1.10 1.11

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.95 3.09
-0.50 2.45 2.54
-0.25 2.15 2.22
0 1.81 1.88
+0.25 1.56 1.60
+0.50 1.42 1.44
+0.75 1.29 1.31
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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