Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ghazl El Mehalla
Oct 21, 2026 - 14:00
0.57 1.15
Al Ittihad
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ghazl El Mehalla opened at 0 against Al Ittihad in the Premier League. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.50
Ghazl El Mehalla +0.50

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ghazl El Mehalla 0
Model–Market Gap
0.50
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.50 AH points more toward Al Ittihad than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Al Ittihad 0
@ 1.79
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.50
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.37
Price Advantage
+30.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.87 / 1.79 0 1.87 / 1.79 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.04 / 1.78 0 2.04 / 1.78 — 0
1xBet 0 1.87 / 1.79 0 1.87 / 1.79 — 0
Betano -0.50 2.92 / 2.75 -0.50 3.00 / 2.67 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.50
xG 0.57 / 1.15 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.04
Ghazl El Mehalla @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
3.73
Ghazl El Mehalla @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.04 vs 3.73
Market price is 45.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 8.40
-1.50 6.75 6.30
-1.25 6.20 5.79
-1.00 5.65 5.25
-0.75 3.58 3.34
-0.25 2.33 2.21
0 1.87 1.79
+0.25 1.53 1.51
+0.75 1.24 1.21
+1.00 1.09 1.08
+1.25 1.07 1.06
+1.50 1.06 1.04

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.00 2.67
+0.50 1.44 1.36

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.00 8.40
-1.50 6.75 6.30
-1.25 6.20 5.80
-1.00 5.65 5.25
-0.75 3.58 3.34
-0.25 2.30 2.21
0 1.87 1.79
+0.25 1.53 1.49
+0.75 1.24 1.21
+1.00 1.09 1.08
+1.25 1.07 1.06
+1.50 1.06 1.04

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 6.60 5.80
-0.75 4.25 3.64
-0.50 3.22 2.81
-0.25 2.64 2.30
0 2.04 1.78
+0.25 1.61 1.48
+0.50 1.43 1.34
+0.75 1.27 1.22
+1.00 1.13 1.11
Primary Bets
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