Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Al Ittihad
Oct 13, 2026 - 17:00
0.97 0.80
El Gouna FC
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Al Ittihad opened at -0.25 against El Gouna FC in the Premier League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
Al Ittihad -0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Al Ittihad -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward El Gouna FC than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
El Gouna FC +0.25
@ 3.17
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.84
Price Advantage
+72.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.84 / 2.92 -0.25 1.84 / 2.92 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 3.17 -0.25 1.93 / 3.17 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.86 / 2.92 -0.25 1.86 / 2.92 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
xG 0.97 / 0.80 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.93
Al Ittihad @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.19
Al Ittihad @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.93 vs 2.19
Market price is 11.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.05 8.70
-1.25 4.54 9.45
-1.00 3.95 8.50
-0.75 2.70 4.80
-0.25 1.86 2.92
0 1.48 2.39
+0.25 1.31 1.80
+0.75 1.12 1.36
+1.50 1.02 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.05 8.50
-1.25 4.55 9.10
-1.00 3.95 8.50
-0.75 2.70 4.80
-0.25 1.84 2.92
0 1.48 2.39
+0.25 1.31 1.78
+0.75 1.12 1.36

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.91 5.20
-0.50 2.34 3.78
-0.25 1.93 3.17
0 1.52 2.52
+0.25 1.35 1.87
+0.50 1.26 1.59
+0.75 1.16 1.40
Primary Bets
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