Ferro 2 vs Platense Res. Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ferro 2
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Platense Res.
Kick-off 18:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ferro 2 opened at -0.25 against Platense Res. in the Reserve League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.31 / 1.29
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Ferro 2 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Platense Res. than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Platense Res. +0.25
@ 2.20
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+25.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:00
Opening
-0.25
16:05
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:00
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.90 / 2.49 -0.25 2.35 / 1.98 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.98 / 2.56 -0.25 2.37 / 1.95 -0.25 0
Bet365 0 1.75 / 2.05 0 1.95 / 1.85 0 0
1xBet -0.25 1.92 / 2.49 -0.25 2.37 / 1.98 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.95 / 1.91 -0.25 1.95 / 1.91 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.50 1.94 / 2.50 -0.25 2.16 / 1.76 -0.25 +0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.30 4.90
-1.25 5.10 4.44
-1.00 5.30 3.95
-0.75 3.48 2.78
-0.25 2.37 1.98
0 2.00 1.68
+0.25 1.67 1.48
+0.75 1.34 1.22
+1.00 1.17 1.09
+1.25 1.14 1.10
+1.50 1.11 1.06

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.80 6.60
-1.50 5.25 5.00
-1.25 4.65 4.50
-1.00 4.25 4.10
-0.75 3.30 3.10
-0.50 2.60 2.50
-0.25 2.30 2.20
0 1.95 1.85
+0.25 1.65 1.60
+0.50 1.50 1.48
+0.75 1.35 1.32
+1.00 1.23 1.21
+1.25 1.19 1.18
+1.50 1.17 1.16
+1.75 1.11 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.10 3.05
-0.75 2.68 2.35
-0.50 2.43 2.00
-0.25 2.16 1.76
0 1.87 1.51
+0.25 1.58 1.36
+0.50 1.43 1.27
+0.75 1.29 1.21
+1.00 1.15 1.14

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.95 1.91
+0.25 1.70 1.67

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.30 4.90
-1.25 5.10 4.45
-1.00 5.30 3.95
-0.75 3.48 2.78
-0.25 2.35 1.98
0 2.00 1.68
+0.25 1.67 1.47
+0.75 1.34 1.22
+1.00 1.17 1.09
+1.25 1.14 1.10
+1.50 1.11 1.06

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.60 3.54
-0.75 3.20 2.65
-0.50 2.71 2.23
-0.25 2.37 1.95
0 2.03 1.63
+0.25 1.70 1.44
+0.50 1.52 1.34
+0.75 1.35 1.31
+1.00 1.20 1.25
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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