Westerlo U21 vs Kortrijk U21 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Westerlo U21
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 1-1)
Kortrijk U21
Kick-off 18:30

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Westerlo U21 opened at -0.25 against Kortrijk U21 in the Reserve Pro League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The closing line is +0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.28 / 1.32
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Westerlo U21 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Kortrijk U21 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Kortrijk U21 +0.25
@ 1.98
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+16.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → +0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
+0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
08:15
Opening
-0.25
18:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:28
PRE1
+0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.70 / 1.65 -0.25 2.24 / 1.90 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.97 / 1.75 0 1.99 / 1.76 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.73 / 1.65 -0.25 2.26 / 1.90 +0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.35 / 1.92 -0.25 2.35 / 1.92 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.90 8.40
-2.00 8.50 6.60
-1.50 4.75 3.80
-1.00 4.00 3.08
-0.75 2.97 2.46
-0.25 2.26 1.90
0 1.99 1.69
+0.25 1.73 1.53
+0.75 1.43 1.30
+1.00 1.28 1.17
+1.50 1.19 1.12
+2.50 1.03 1.04

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.35 1.92
0 2.04 1.66
+0.25 1.76 1.51

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.50 6.60
-1.50 4.75 3.80
-1.00 4.00 3.08
-0.75 2.97 2.46
-0.25 2.24 1.90
0 1.99 1.69
+0.25 1.73 1.52
+0.75 1.43 1.30
+1.00 1.28 1.17
+1.50 1.19 1.12

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.90 2.53
-0.50 2.46 2.19
-0.25 2.23 1.98
0 1.99 1.76
+0.25 1.74 1.59
+0.50 1.59 1.47
+0.75 1.45 1.35
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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