Vado vs Inter U23 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Vado
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 1-1)
Inter U23
Kick-off 19:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Vado opened at 0 against Inter U23 in the Coppa Italia Serie C. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Vado from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Vado -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Inter U23 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Vado -0.25
@ 2.90
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.30
Price Advantage
+26.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
17:20
Opening
0
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
19:00
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 2.00 / 1.70 -0.25 2.78 / 1.77 -0.25 -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.83 / 1.85 -0.25 2.90 / 1.84 -0.25 0
Bet365 0 2.08 / 1.72 -0.25 2.85 / 1.85 -0.25 -0.25
1xBet 0 2.00 / 1.70 -0.25 2.83 / 1.77 -0.25 -0.25
BetVictor -0.25 2.09 / 1.83 -0.50 2.35 / 1.86 -0.50 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.80 4.20
-1.25 5.38 3.76
-1.00 6.75 3.28
-0.75 4.25 2.43
-0.25 2.83 1.77
0 2.38 1.50
+0.25 1.85 1.36
+0.75 1.44 1.15
+1.00 1.25 1.04
+1.25 1.19 1.09
+1.50 1.15 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.40 4.25
-1.25 5.90 3.80
-1.00 6.80 3.45
-0.75 4.25 2.50
-0.50 3.30 2.15
-0.25 2.85 1.85
0 2.38 1.55
+0.25 1.95 1.40
+0.50 1.68 1.32
+0.75 1.50 1.21
+1.00 1.30 1.10
+1.25 1.25 1.13
+1.50 1.21 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.35 1.86
-0.25 2.39 1.63
0 2.07 1.39
+0.25 1.70 1.28
+0.50 1.51 1.29

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.80 4.20
-1.00 6.75 3.28
-0.75 4.25 2.43
-0.25 2.78 1.77
0 2.38 1.50
+0.25 1.85 1.34
+0.75 1.44 1.15
+1.00 1.25 1.04
+1.50 1.15 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.34 2.12
-0.25 2.90 1.84
0 2.48 1.53
+0.25 1.98 1.39
+0.50 1.71 1.30
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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