AZ Picerno vs Barletta Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

AZ Picerno
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Barletta
Kick-off 16:00 Stadium Stadio Comunale Donato Curcio

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

AZ Picerno opened at 0 against Barletta in the Coppa Italia Serie C. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
AZ Picerno 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward AZ Picerno than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
AZ Picerno 0
@ 2.02
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.95
Price Advantage
+3.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
17:20
Opening
0
14:57
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.73 / 1.93 0 1.85 / 1.80 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.72 / 1.97 0 1.90 / 1.78 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.00 / 1.83 0 2.00 / 1.83 — 0
Bet365 0 1.75 / 2.05 0 2.02 / 1.78 — 0
1xBet 0 1.72 / 1.97 0 1.90 / 1.78 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.84 / 2.08 -0.25 2.04 / 1.89 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.85 1.80

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 11.00 11.50
-1.50 6.10 5.55
-1.25 5.27 5.09
-1.00 5.10 4.55
-0.75 3.34 3.08
-0.25 2.32 2.12
0 1.90 1.78
+0.25 1.58 1.52
+0.75 1.28 1.24
+1.00 1.13 1.10
+1.25 1.10 1.09
+1.50 1.08 1.06

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.50 6.00
-1.25 5.00 5.50
-1.00 4.40 5.00
-0.75 3.10 3.45
-0.50 2.50 2.68
-0.25 2.15 2.30
0 2.02 1.78
+0.25 1.60 1.68
+0.50 1.45 1.50
+0.75 1.30 1.35
+1.00 1.17 1.20
+1.25 1.15 1.17
+1.50 1.12 1.15

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.31 2.15
-0.25 2.04 1.89
0 1.73 1.61
+0.25 1.49 1.41
+0.50 1.36 1.30

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.10 5.55
-1.25 5.30 5.10
-1.00 5.10 4.55
-0.75 3.34 3.08
-0.25 2.28 2.12
0 1.90 1.78
+0.25 1.58 1.50
+0.75 1.28 1.24
+1.00 1.13 1.10
+1.25 1.10 1.09
+1.50 1.08 1.06

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.55 3.21
-0.50 2.82 2.59
-0.25 2.43 2.22
0 2.00 1.83
+0.25 1.65 1.55
+0.50 1.47 1.40
+0.75 1.33 1.27
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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