Wettswil-Bonstetten vs Winterthur II Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Wettswil-Bonstetten
Final Score
3 – 0
Winterthur II
Kick-off 17:30

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Wettswil-Bonstetten opened at -0.25 against Winterthur II in the 1. Liga Classic - Group 3. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
Wettswil-Bonstetten -0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.40 / 1.20
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Wettswil-Bonstetten -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Winterthur II than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Winterthur II +0.25
@ 2.43
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.07
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.92
Price Advantage
+26.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
14:34
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.26 / 1.92 -0.25 1.85 / 2.43 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.87 / 2.44 -0.25 1.87 / 2.41 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.92 / 2.02 -0.25 1.95 / 2.02 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.28 / 1.92 -0.25 1.87 / 2.43 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.06 / 1.75 -0.50 1.91 / 2.18 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.20 8.10
-2.00 7.50 8.70
-1.50 4.05 5.75
-1.25 3.58 3.74
-1.00 3.20 4.90
-0.75 2.49 3.42
-0.25 1.87 2.43
0 1.61 2.11
+0.25 1.44 1.79
+0.75 1.23 1.42
+1.00 1.11 1.26
+1.25 1.19 1.21
+1.50 1.07 1.17
+2.50 1.02 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.95 2.02
+0.25 1.78 1.85

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.20 2.26
-0.50 1.91 2.18
-0.25 1.69 2.19
0 1.47 1.92
+0.25 1.35 1.64
+0.50 1.35 1.48
+0.75 1.32 1.34

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.20 8.10
-2.00 7.50 8.70
-1.50 4.05 5.75
-1.25 3.58 3.58
-1.00 3.20 4.90
-0.75 2.49 3.42
-0.25 1.85 2.43
0 1.61 2.11
+0.25 1.44 1.77
+0.75 1.23 1.42
+1.00 1.11 1.26
+1.25 1.21 1.21
+1.50 1.07 1.17
+2.50 1.02 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.43 2.94
-0.50 2.10 2.71
-0.25 1.87 2.41
0 1.61 2.13
+0.25 1.46 1.83
+0.50 1.37 1.63
+0.75 1.35 1.45
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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