Scafatese vs Sorrento Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Scafatese
Oct 11, 2026 - 12:30
1.37 1.23
Sorrento
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Scafatese opened at -0.25 against Sorrento in the Serie C - Girone C. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Scafatese -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.13
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.13 AH points more toward Sorrento than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Sorrento +0.25
@ 2.60
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.13
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.86
Price Advantage
+39.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.81 / 1.85 -0.25 1.95 / 2.43 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.03 / 2.57 -0.25 2.03 / 2.57 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.08 / 2.42 -0.25 2.00 / 2.60 — 0
1xBet 0 1.81 / 1.85 -0.25 1.97 / 2.43 — -0.25
Betano -0.50 2.37 / 2.80 -0.50 2.30 / 2.80 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.12
xG 1.37 / 1.23 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.03
Scafatese @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.16
Scafatese @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.03 vs 2.16
Market price is 6.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.35 8.70
-1.50 4.80 6.55
-1.25 4.34 6.00
-1.00 3.88 5.50
-0.75 2.78 3.58
-0.25 1.97 2.43
0 1.64 2.06
+0.25 1.44 1.70
+0.75 1.21 1.34
+1.00 1.08 1.18
+1.25 1.06 1.14
+1.50 1.05 1.12

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 6.60
-1.00 3.70 5.75
-0.75 2.75 3.80
-0.50 2.30 3.00
-0.25 2.00 2.60
+0.25 1.48 1.80
+0.50 1.38 1.60
+0.75 1.25 1.42
+1.00 1.14 1.26
+1.50 1.11 1.19

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.30 2.80
+0.50 1.40 1.57

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.35 8.70
-1.50 4.80 6.55
-1.25 4.33 6.00
-1.00 3.88 5.50
-0.75 2.78 3.58
-0.25 1.95 2.43
0 1.64 2.06
+0.25 1.44 1.69
+0.75 1.21 1.34
+1.00 1.08 1.18
+1.25 1.06 1.14
+1.50 1.05 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.35 2.98
-0.25 2.03 2.57
0 1.68 2.17
+0.25 1.48 1.80
+0.50 1.37 1.59
Primary Bets
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