Casarano vs Salernitana Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Casarano
Oct 11, 2026 - 13:00
1.35 1.25
Salernitana
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Casarano opened at 0 against Salernitana in the Serie C - Girone C. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Casarano 0
Model–Market Gap
0.09
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.09 AH points more toward Casarano than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Casarano 0
@ 2.11
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.09
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.88
Price Advantage
+12.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.90 / 1.76 0 1.98 / 1.70 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.11 / 1.71 0 2.11 / 1.71 — 0
Bet365 0 2.00 / 1.80 0 2.10 / 1.70 — 0
1xBet 0 1.90 / 1.76 0 1.98 / 1.70 — 0
Betano -0.50 2.62 / 2.37 -0.50 2.65 / 2.30 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
xG 1.35 / 1.25 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.11
Casarano @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.88
Casarano @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.11 vs 1.88
Market price is 12.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.90 8.40
-2.00 9.70 8.90
-1.75 7.39 5.80
-1.50 5.55 4.50
-1.25 5.10 4.05
-1.00 4.65 3.58
-0.75 3.28 2.70
-0.25 2.33 1.96
0 1.98 1.70
+0.25 1.68 1.51
+0.75 1.36 1.25
+1.00 1.21 1.12
+1.25 1.17 1.10
+1.50 1.13 1.08
+1.75 1.07 1.03

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.80 5.75
-1.50 5.75 4.25
-1.25 5.25 3.90
-1.00 4.65 3.55
-0.75 3.45 2.75
-0.50 2.85 2.30
-0.25 2.42 2.02
0 2.10 1.70
+0.25 1.78 1.52
+0.50 1.60 1.40
+0.75 1.42 1.30
+1.00 1.27 1.18
+1.25 1.24 1.16
+1.50 1.21 1.14
+1.75 1.14 1.10

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.65 2.30
+0.50 1.57 1.44

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.40 5.80
-1.50 5.55 4.50
-1.25 5.10 4.05
-1.00 4.65 3.58
-0.75 3.28 2.70
-0.25 2.30 1.96
0 1.98 1.70
+0.25 1.68 1.49
+0.75 1.36 1.25
+1.00 1.21 1.12
+1.25 1.16 1.10
+1.50 1.13 1.08
+1.75 1.07 1.03

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.12 2.72
-0.50 2.80 2.32
-0.25 2.45 2.04
0 2.11 1.71
+0.25 1.80 1.52
+0.50 1.60 1.41
+0.75 1.43 1.32
Primary Bets
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