Inter U23 vs Foggia Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Inter U23
Final Score
3 – 2
(HT 2-1)
Foggia
Kick-off 13:00 Stadium Stadio Ernesto Breda

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Inter U23 opened at -0.25 against Foggia in the Serie C - Girone C. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.25
Inter U23 -0.25

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.44 / 1.16
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Inter U23 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.00
handicap points
3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Foggia +0.25
@ 2.68
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.00
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.00
Price Advantage
+34.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
13:05
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.92 / 2.38 -0.25 1.89 / 2.46 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.00 / 2.59 -0.25 2.02 / 2.62 -0.25 0
Bet365 0 1.70 / 2.10 -0.25 1.95 / 2.68 -0.25 -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.94 / 2.38 -0.25 1.90 / 2.46 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 2.00 / 2.45 -0.25 1.95 / 2.55 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.93 / 2.50 -0.25 1.90 / 2.56 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.59 8.10
-1.50 4.33 6.15
-1.25 3.92 5.70
-1.00 3.50 5.25
-0.75 2.59 3.58
-0.25 1.90 2.46
0 1.61 2.11
+0.25 1.43 1.75
+0.75 1.21 1.39
+1.00 1.09 1.22
+1.25 1.08 1.18
+1.50 1.06 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.08

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 6.80
-1.25 3.90 6.25
-1.00 3.45 5.75
-0.75 2.60 3.80
-0.50 2.25 3.10
-0.25 1.95 2.68
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.45 1.85
+0.50 1.35 1.62
+0.75 1.25 1.48
+1.00 1.14 1.30
+1.25 1.12 1.24
+1.50 1.10 1.20

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.90 2.56
0 1.60 2.15
+0.25 1.43 1.78

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.95 2.55
+0.25 1.47 1.80

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.60 8.10
-1.50 4.33 6.15
-1.25 3.92 5.70
-1.00 3.50 5.25
-0.75 2.59 3.58
-0.25 1.89 2.46
0 1.61 2.11
+0.25 1.43 1.74
+0.75 1.21 1.39
+1.00 1.09 1.22
+1.25 1.08 1.18
+1.50 1.06 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.08

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.32 3.03
-0.25 2.02 2.62
0 1.67 2.23
+0.25 1.48 1.85
+0.50 1.37 1.62
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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