Reggiana vs Spezia Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Reggiana
Oct 04, 2026 - 15:30
1.26 1.39
Spezia
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Reggiana opened at 0 against Spezia in the Serie C - Girone B. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Reggiana 0
Model–Market Gap
0.12
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.12 AH points more toward Spezia than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Spezia 0
@ 1.98
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.12
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.85
Price Advantage
+7.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.78 / 1.88 0 1.78 / 1.88 — 0
Bet365 0 1.82 / 1.98 0 1.82 / 1.98 — 0
1xBet 0 1.78 / 1.88 0 1.78 / 1.88 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.12 / 2.30 -0.25 2.12 / 2.30 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
xG 1.26 / 1.39 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.78
Reggiana @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.18
Reggiana @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.78 vs 2.18
Market price is 18.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.50 10.50
-1.75 6.74 8.30
-1.50 5.10 5.45
-1.25 4.64 5.00
-1.00 4.15 4.55
-0.75 2.92 3.08
-0.25 2.09 2.19
0 1.78 1.88
+0.25 1.54 1.62
+0.75 1.28 1.31
+1.00 1.13 1.16
+1.25 1.10 1.12
+1.50 1.08 1.10
+1.75 1.04 1.04

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.25 5.75
-1.25 4.50 5.25
-1.00 4.15 4.50
-0.75 3.00 3.30
-0.50 2.50 2.68
-0.25 2.15 2.35
0 1.82 1.98
+0.25 1.58 1.68
+0.50 1.45 1.50
+0.75 1.32 1.38
+1.00 1.19 1.22
+1.25 1.16 1.19
+1.50 1.14 1.16

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.45 2.62
-0.25 2.12 2.30
+0.25 1.57 1.67
+0.50 1.45 1.52

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.75 7.30
-1.50 5.10 5.45
-1.25 4.65 5.00
-1.00 4.15 4.55
-0.75 2.92 3.08
-0.25 2.07 2.19
0 1.78 1.88
+0.25 1.54 1.61
+0.75 1.28 1.31
+1.00 1.13 1.16
+1.25 1.10 1.12
+1.50 1.08 1.10
+1.75 1.03 1.04
Primary Bets
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