Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Pineto Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
Oct 04, 2026 - 12:30
1.31 1.29
Pineto
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 opened at -0.25 against Pineto in the Serie C - Girone B. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Pineto than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Pineto +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+71.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.74 / 2.83 -0.25 1.74 / 2.83 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.78 / 3.00 -0.25 1.78 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.76 / 2.83 -0.25 1.76 / 2.83 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 2.92 -0.25 1.78 / 2.92 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
xG 1.31 / 1.29 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.74
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.33
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.74 vs 2.33
Market price is 25.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.20 8.30
-1.25 3.70 7.65
-1.00 3.20 7.00
-0.75 2.38 4.30
-0.25 1.76 2.83
0 1.48 2.39
+0.25 1.33 1.91
+0.75 1.15 1.46
+1.00 1.04 1.26
+1.25 1.03 1.20
+1.50 1.02 1.16

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.10 7.00
-0.75 2.38 4.50
-0.50 2.05 3.45
-0.25 1.78 3.00
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.38 2.02
+0.50 1.30 1.75
+0.75 1.19 1.55
+1.00 1.10 1.35

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.78 2.92
+0.25 1.37 1.98

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.20 8.30
-1.25 3.70 7.70
-1.00 3.20 7.00
-0.75 2.38 4.30
-0.25 1.74 2.83
0 1.48 2.39
+0.25 1.33 1.89
+0.75 1.14 1.46
+1.00 1.04 1.26
+1.25 1.03 1.20
+1.50 1.02 1.16
Primary Bets
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