Torres vs Pianese Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Torres
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 1-1)
Pianese
Kick-off 16:30 Stadium Vanni Sanna

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Torres opened at -0.25 against Pianese in the Serie C - Girone B. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.29 / 1.31
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Torres -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward Pianese than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Pianese +0.25
@ 3.15
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.72
Price Advantage
+83.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:15
Opening
-0.25
12:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
16:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.64 / 3.08 -0.25 1.60 / 3.14 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.81 / 2.97 -0.25 1.72 / 3.15 — 0
Bet365 0 1.92 / 1.88 -0.25 1.70 / 3.10 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.66 / 3.08 -0.25 1.62 / 3.14 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.70 / 2.87 -0.25 1.60 / 2.90 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.68 / 2.95 -0.25 1.52 / 2.86 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.30 9.30
-1.50 3.34 8.30
-1.25 3.04 7.80
-1.00 2.66 7.40
-0.75 2.12 4.74
-0.25 1.62 3.14
0 1.37 2.74
+0.25 1.27 2.10
+0.75 1.12 1.58
+1.00 1.03 1.37
+1.25 1.02 1.29
+1.50 1.02 1.24

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 2.85 6.80
-0.75 2.25 4.65
-0.50 1.98 3.55
-0.25 1.70 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.10
+0.50 1.27 1.82
+0.75 1.18 1.62
+1.00 1.10 1.40

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.52 2.86
0 1.29 3.15
+0.25 1.35 2.31

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.60 2.90
+0.25 1.38 2.27

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.30 9.30
-1.50 3.34 8.30
-1.25 3.04 7.80
-1.00 2.66 7.40
-0.75 2.12 4.75
-0.25 1.60 3.14
0 1.37 2.74
+0.25 1.27 2.08
+0.75 1.12 1.58
+1.00 1.03 1.37
+1.25 1.02 1.29
+1.50 1.02 1.24

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.00 3.33
-0.25 1.72 3.15
0 1.44 2.69
+0.25 1.34 2.10
+0.50 1.30 1.83
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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