Treviso vs Ospitaletto Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Treviso
Oct 11, 2026 - 15:30
1.32 1.28
Ospitaletto
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Treviso opened at -0.25 against Ospitaletto in the Serie C - Girone A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Treviso -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Ospitaletto than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Ospitaletto +0.25
@ 2.73
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+54.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.86 / 2.52 -0.25 1.84 / 2.59 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.85 / 2.96 -0.25 1.97 / 2.73 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.00 / 2.60 -0.25 1.92 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.88 / 2.52 -0.25 1.86 / 2.59 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.87 / 2.66 -0.25 1.87 / 2.66 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.97
Treviso @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Treviso @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.97 vs 2.30
Market price is 14.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.55 8.90
-1.50 4.30 6.75
-1.25 3.90 6.29
-1.00 3.42 5.85
-0.75 2.56 3.86
-0.25 1.86 2.59
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.39 1.80
+0.75 1.18 1.40
+1.00 1.07 1.23
+1.25 1.06 1.18
+1.50 1.04 1.14

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 7.00
-1.25 3.90 6.60
-1.00 3.45 5.90
-0.75 2.60 3.90
-0.50 2.20 3.10
-0.25 1.92 2.68
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.45 1.88
+0.50 1.35 1.65
+0.75 1.24 1.48
+1.00 1.13 1.30
+1.25 1.11 1.24
+1.50 1.10 1.20

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.87 2.66
0 1.56 2.23
+0.25 1.40 1.80

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.55 8.90
-1.50 4.30 6.75
-1.25 3.90 6.30
-1.00 3.42 5.85
-0.75 2.56 3.86
-0.25 1.84 2.59
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.39 1.78
+0.75 1.18 1.40
+1.00 1.07 1.23
+1.25 1.06 1.18
+1.50 1.04 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.30 3.17
-0.25 1.97 2.73
0 1.61 2.29
+0.25 1.43 1.85
+0.50 1.33 1.61
Primary Bets
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