Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Folgore Caratese
Oct 03, 2026 - 18:30
1.32 1.28
Desenzano Calvina
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Folgore Caratese opened at -0.25 against Desenzano Calvina in the Serie C - Girone A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Folgore Caratese -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Desenzano Calvina than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Desenzano Calvina +0.25
@ 2.68
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+51.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.90 / 2.52 -0.25 1.90 / 2.52 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.68 -0.25 1.98 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.92 / 2.52 -0.25 1.92 / 2.52 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.93 / 2.60 -0.25 1.93 / 2.60 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.90
Folgore Caratese @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Folgore Caratese @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.90 vs 2.30
Market price is 17.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.06 9.10
-1.50 4.65 6.75
-1.25 4.15 6.25
-1.00 3.70 5.75
-0.75 2.66 3.78
-0.25 1.92 2.52
0 1.60 2.13
+0.25 1.41 1.74
+0.75 1.19 1.37
+1.00 1.07 1.20
+1.25 1.06 1.16
+1.50 1.04 1.12

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 7.00
-1.25 4.15 6.40
-1.00 3.55 5.90
-0.75 2.68 3.90
-0.50 2.25 3.10
-0.25 1.98 2.68
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.45 1.82
+0.50 1.35 1.62
+0.75 1.24 1.45
+1.00 1.13 1.27
+1.25 1.12 1.22
+1.50 1.10 1.19

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.93 2.60
+0.25 1.45 1.80

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.05 9.10
-1.50 4.65 6.75
-1.25 4.15 6.25
-1.00 3.70 5.75
-0.75 2.66 3.78
-0.25 1.90 2.52
0 1.60 2.13
+0.25 1.41 1.73
+0.75 1.19 1.37
+1.00 1.07 1.20
+1.25 1.06 1.16
+1.50 1.04 1.12
Primary Bets
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