Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Novara Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Dolomiti Bellunesi
Oct 04, 2026 - 15:30
1.19 1.41
Novara
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Dolomiti Bellunesi opened at 0 against Novara in the Serie C - Girone A. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
Dolomiti Bellunesi +0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Dolomiti Bellunesi 0
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Novara than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Novara 0
@ 1.92
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.76
Price Advantage
+9.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.80 / 1.86 0 1.80 / 1.86 — 0
Bet365 0 1.88 / 1.92 0 1.88 / 1.92 — 0
1xBet 0 1.80 / 1.86 0 1.80 / 1.86 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.60 / 1.62 +0.25 1.60 / 1.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
xG 1.19 / 1.41 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.80
Dolomiti Bellunesi @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.32
Dolomiti Bellunesi @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.80 vs 2.32
Market price is 22.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.65 8.10
-1.50 5.65 5.95
-1.25 5.10 5.39
-1.00 4.60 4.85
-0.75 3.08 3.20
-0.25 2.16 2.21
0 1.80 1.86
+0.25 1.53 1.59
+0.75 1.26 1.28
+1.00 1.11 1.13
+1.25 1.09 1.10
+1.50 1.07 1.08
+1.75 1.02 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.75 5.75
-1.25 5.25 5.25
-1.00 4.50 4.65
-0.75 3.30 3.30
-0.50 2.60 2.68
-0.25 2.25 2.30
0 1.88 1.92
+0.25 1.60 1.62
+0.50 1.45 1.48
+0.75 1.32 1.32
+1.00 1.18 1.19
+1.25 1.16 1.16
+1.50 1.14 1.14

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.55 2.57
-0.25 2.20 2.25
+0.25 1.60 1.62
+0.50 1.47 1.47

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.70 8.10
-1.50 5.65 5.95
-1.25 5.10 5.40
-1.00 4.60 4.85
-0.75 3.08 3.20
-0.25 2.14 2.21
0 1.80 1.86
+0.25 1.53 1.57
+0.75 1.26 1.28
+1.00 1.11 1.13
+1.25 1.09 1.10
+1.50 1.07 1.08
+1.75 1.02 1.03
Primary Bets
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