Desenzano Calvina vs Lecco Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Desenzano Calvina
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 0-2)
Lecco
Kick-off 16:30 Stadium Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Desenzano Calvina opened at 0 against Lecco in the Serie C - Girone A. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Desenzano Calvina from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.31 / 1.29
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Desenzano Calvina -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Lecco than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Lecco +0.25
@ 2.69
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+53.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
21:10
Opening
0
12:56
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
16:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.78 / 1.88 -0.25 1.94 / 2.52 -0.25 -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.75 / 2.11 -0.25 2.04 / 2.69 -0.25 -0.25
Bet365 0 1.90 / 1.90 0 1.70 / 2.10 0 0
1xBet 0 1.78 / 1.88 -0.25 1.96 / 2.52 -0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 2.15 / 2.35 -0.25 2.00 / 2.57 -0.25 0
BetVictor 0 1.71 / 1.98 -0.25 1.96 / 2.50 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.05 8.80
-1.50 4.65 6.65
-1.25 4.20 6.15
-1.00 3.78 5.65
-0.75 2.74 3.78
-0.25 1.96 2.52
0 1.62 2.11
+0.25 1.41 1.72
+0.75 1.19 1.35
+1.00 1.08 1.19
+1.25 1.06 1.15
+1.50 1.05 1.12

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.65 6.40
-1.25 4.25 5.90
-1.00 3.70 5.50
-0.75 2.75 3.55
-0.50 2.35 2.85
-0.25 2.02 2.50
0 1.70 2.10
+0.25 1.50 1.78
+0.50 1.40 1.58
+0.75 1.27 1.42
+1.00 1.15 1.26
+1.25 1.13 1.21
+1.50 1.12 1.18

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.28 2.77
-0.25 1.96 2.50
0 1.64 2.08
+0.25 1.45 1.72
+0.50 1.37 1.54

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.32 2.80
-0.25 2.00 2.57
+0.25 1.47 1.75
+0.50 1.40 1.57

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.05 8.80
-1.50 4.65 6.65
-1.25 4.20 6.15
-1.00 3.78 5.65
-0.75 2.74 3.78
-0.25 1.94 2.52
0 1.62 2.11
+0.25 1.41 1.70
+0.75 1.19 1.35
+1.00 1.08 1.19
+1.25 1.06 1.15
+1.50 1.05 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.86 3.75
-0.50 2.39 3.15
-0.25 2.04 2.69
0 1.65 2.23
+0.25 1.44 1.79
+0.50 1.34 1.57
+0.75 1.25 1.40
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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