Treibach vs Velden Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Treibach
Final Score
0 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Velden
Kick-off 17:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Treibach opened at 0 against Velden in the Regionalliga - South. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Treibach from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Treibach -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Velden than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Velden +0.25
@ 2.60
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+46.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:15
Opening
0
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.56 / 2.23 -0.25 1.75 / 2.56 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 2.00 / 2.91 -0.50 2.00 / 2.91 — 0
1xBet 0 1.56 / 2.23 -0.25 1.77 / 2.56 — -0.25
BetVictor -0.25 1.62 / 2.23 -0.25 1.61 / 2.26 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.40 7.70
-1.50 3.50 5.90
-1.25 3.14 5.45
-1.00 2.83 5.05
-0.75 2.26 3.50
-0.25 1.77 2.56
0 1.54 2.27
+0.25 1.40 1.90
+0.75 1.22 1.51
+1.00 1.10 1.33
+1.25 1.08 1.27
+1.50 1.07 1.22
+1.75 1.02 1.14

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.61 2.26
0 1.42 2.02
+0.25 1.32 1.73

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.40 7.70
-1.50 3.50 5.90
-1.25 3.14 5.45
-1.00 2.83 5.05
-0.75 2.26 3.50
-0.25 1.75 2.56
0 1.54 2.27
+0.25 1.40 1.88
+0.75 1.22 1.51
+1.00 1.10 1.33
+1.25 1.08 1.27
+1.50 1.07 1.22
+1.75 1.02 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.00 2.91
-0.25 1.79 2.60
0 1.54 2.30
+0.25 1.41 1.93
+0.50 1.33 1.70
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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