Rīgas FS vs FK Jablonec Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Rīgas FS
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 1-2)
FK Jablonec
Kick-off 16:30 Stadium LNK Sporta Parks

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Rīgas FS opened at -0.50 against FK Jablonec in the UEFA Europa Conference League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward FK Jablonec from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 7 valid books, with 57% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.29 / 1.31
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Rīgas FS -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.50 · 4 / 10 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward FK Jablonec than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
FK Jablonec +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.72
Price Advantage
+74.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 7 valid books · 57% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.50 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.50
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:22
Opening
-0.50
12:31
Last Pre-Match
-0.50
16:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.50 / 2.40 0 1.50 / 2.40 0 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK +0.25 1.36 / 1.94 -0.25 1.72 / 2.76 -0.25 -0.50
Betfair DEEP +1.50 1.07 / 1.22 +1.50 1.07 / 1.22 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 1.93 / 2.99 -0.50 2.00 / 3.10 -0.50 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.78 / 3.00 -0.25 1.78 / 3.00 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.81 / 2.76 -0.25 1.81 / 2.76 -0.25 0
Unibet -0.50 1.95 / 3.30 -0.50 1.95 / 3.30 — 0
Betano -0.50 2.00 / 3.00 -0.50 2.02 / 3.00 -0.50 0
Superbet -0.50 2.02 / 3.25 -0.50 2.02 / 3.25 — 0
BetVictor +0.25 1.34 / 1.94 -0.25 1.73 / 2.95 -0.25 -0.50
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.50 2.40

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 7.90 10.50
-1.75 5.14 9.30
-1.50 3.92 7.50
-1.25 3.50 6.95
-1.00 3.04 6.40
-0.75 2.29 4.04
-0.25 1.81 2.76
0 1.56 2.50
+0.25 1.36 2.04
+0.75 1.17 1.50
+1.00 1.05 1.29
+1.25 1.04 1.22
+1.50 1.03 1.18

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.80 6.25
-1.25 3.45 6.80
-1.00 3.00 6.80
-0.75 2.38 4.40
-0.50 2.05 3.45
-0.25 1.78 3.00
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.38 2.02
+0.50 1.30 1.75
+0.75 1.20 1.55
+1.00 1.10 1.38
+1.25 1.10 1.30
+1.50 1.12 1.25

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.37 3.35
-0.50 2.00 3.40
-0.25 1.73 2.95
0 1.45 2.50
+0.25 1.33 1.96
+0.50 1.26 1.69
+0.75 1.26 1.49

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.02 3.00
-0.25 1.75 2.95
+0.25 1.39 2.05
+0.50 1.38 1.78

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.50 13.00
-1.50 3.75 7.00
+1.50 1.07 1.22

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.15 9.30
-1.50 3.92 7.50
-1.25 3.50 6.95
-1.00 3.04 6.40
-0.75 2.29 4.05
-0.25 1.72 2.76
0 1.51 2.43
+0.25 1.36 1.94
+0.75 1.17 1.50
+1.00 1.05 1.29
+1.25 1.04 1.22
+1.50 1.03 1.18

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.33 3.10
-0.50 2.00 3.10
-0.25 1.78 2.76
0 1.52 2.43
+0.25 1.40 2.01
+0.50 1.32 1.76
+0.75 1.32 1.54

Superbet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.90 7.10
-0.50 2.02 3.25
+0.50 1.30 1.70
+1.50 1.07 1.22

Unibet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.65 6.75
-0.50 1.95 3.30
+0.50 1.27 1.73
+1.50 1.06 1.22
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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