Qarabag vs Dynamo Kyiv Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Qarabag
Final Score
2 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Dynamo Kyiv
Kick-off 16:00 Stadium Tofiq Bahramov Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Qarabag opened at -0.25 against Dynamo Kyiv in the UEFA Europa Conference League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 1 of 1 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.37
Qarabag +0.37

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.36 / 1.76
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Qarabag -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 9 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
0.62
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.62 AH points more toward Dynamo Kyiv than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
1 / 1 valid books · 100% agreement · Insufficient

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:22
Opening
-0.25
12:31
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
15:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.75
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.75 1.97 / 4.95 -0.75 1.97 / 4.95 — 0
Betfair DEEP +1.50 1.05 / 1.30 +1.50 1.05 / 1.30 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.52 / 3.23 -0.25 1.52 / 3.23 — 0
Bet365 -0.50 1.80 / 3.90 -0.50 1.80 / 3.90 — 0
1xBet -0.75 1.97 / 4.93 -0.75 1.97 / 4.93 — 0
Unibet +0.50 1.19 / 2.08 +0.50 1.19 / 2.08 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.60 / 2.82 -0.25 1.62 / 2.82 -0.25 0
Superbet +0.50 1.24 / 1.88 +0.50 1.24 / 1.88 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.53 / 3.55 -0.25 1.53 / 3.55 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.90 9.30
-1.50 3.08 8.70
-1.25 2.74 8.25
-1.00 2.41 7.80
-0.75 1.97 4.93
-0.25 1.62 3.30
0 1.40 3.07
+0.25 1.26 2.36
+0.75 1.11 1.68
+1.00 1.02 1.45

Bet365 Main —

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.00 7.00
-1.00 2.60 6.40
-0.75 2.08 5.25
-0.50 1.80 3.90
-0.25 1.60 3.45
0 1.38 3.00
+0.25 1.30 2.30
+0.50 1.24 2.00
+0.75 1.16 1.72
+1.00 1.12 1.48
+1.25 1.10 1.38

BetVictor Main —

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.53 3.55
0 1.31 3.05
+0.25 1.24 2.29

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.62 2.82
+0.25 1.42 2.27

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-2.50 6.00 13.00
-1.50 3.20 8.50
+1.50 1.05 1.30

Marathonbet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.90 9.10
-1.50 3.08 8.70
-1.25 2.74 8.30
-1.00 2.41 7.80
-0.75 1.97 4.95
-0.25 1.54 3.30
0 1.36 2.96
+0.25 1.26 2.24
+0.75 1.11 1.68
+1.00 1.02 1.45
+1.25 1.02 1.35

Pinnacle Main —

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.52 3.23
0 1.33 2.93
+0.25 1.28 2.31

Superbet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.20 7.90
-0.50 1.82 3.70
+0.50 1.24 1.88
+1.50 1.05 1.30

Unibet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.75 6.75
-0.50 1.64 4.00
+0.50 1.19 2.08
+1.50 1.06 1.38
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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