ML Vitebsk vs Borac Banja Luka Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

ML Vitebsk
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Borac Banja Luka
Kick-off 17:00 Stadium Mezokovesdi Varosi Stadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

ML Vitebsk opened at 0 against Borac Banja Luka in the UEFA Europa Conference League. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 6 of 9 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.33 / 1.27
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
ML Vitebsk 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 6 / 10 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward ML Vitebsk than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
ML Vitebsk 0
@ 2.01
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.93
Price Advantage
+4.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
6 / 9 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:22
Opening
0
16:41
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.77 / 1.95 0 1.80 / 1.91 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.77 / 1.97 0 1.89 / 1.84 — 0
Betfair DEEP +1.50 1.11 / 1.14 +1.50 1.11 / 1.14 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.79 / 2.00 0 2.01 / 1.82 — 0
Bet365 0 1.75 / 2.05 0 1.98 / 1.82 — 0
1xBet 0 1.82 / 2.03 0 1.95 / 1.90 — 0
Unibet +0.50 1.41 / 1.50 -0.50 2.60 / 2.40 — -1.00
Betano -0.25 2.07 / 2.40 -0.25 2.27 / 2.18 — 0
Superbet +0.50 1.41 / 1.53 -0.50 2.35 / 2.67 — -1.00
BetVictor 0 1.75 / 1.93 0 1.84 / 1.83 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.80 1.91

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.10 9.00
-2.00 9.30 8.00
-1.75 6.55 6.91
-1.50 5.05 4.85
-1.25 4.65 4.44
-1.00 4.20 3.98
-0.75 2.94 2.84
-0.25 2.25 2.09
0 1.95 1.90
+0.25 1.62 1.67
+0.75 1.33 1.31
+1.00 1.17 1.16
+1.25 1.14 1.12
+1.50 1.11 1.10
+1.75 1.06 1.05
+2.00 1.04 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 7.00
-1.50 5.50 5.25
-1.25 4.80 4.65
-1.00 4.25 4.25
-0.75 3.10 3.10
-0.50 2.50 2.60
-0.25 2.20 2.25
0 1.98 1.82
+0.25 1.62 1.65
+0.50 1.48 1.50
+0.75 1.35 1.35
+1.00 1.21 1.21
+1.25 1.18 1.18
+1.50 1.16 1.15
+1.75 1.10 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.10 3.10
-0.50 2.50 2.50
-0.25 2.17 2.17
0 1.84 1.83
+0.25 1.59 1.59
+0.50 1.45 1.45
+0.75 1.30 1.30

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.57 2.47
-0.25 2.27 2.18
+0.25 1.67 1.62
+0.50 1.52 1.50

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.00 11.00
-1.50 5.00 6.00
+1.50 1.11 1.14
+2.50 1.02 1.03

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.55 6.30
-1.50 5.05 4.85
-1.25 4.65 4.45
-1.00 4.20 3.98
-0.75 2.94 2.85
-0.25 2.14 2.09
0 1.89 1.84
+0.25 1.62 1.59
+0.75 1.33 1.31
+1.00 1.17 1.16
+1.25 1.14 1.12
+1.50 1.11 1.10
+1.75 1.06 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.20 2.85
-0.50 2.61 2.37
-0.25 2.32 2.10
0 2.01 1.82
+0.25 1.72 1.60
+0.50 1.56 1.47
+0.75 1.40 1.33

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.60 5.35
-0.50 2.35 2.67
+0.50 1.41 1.53
+1.50 1.12 1.16

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.30 4.70
-0.50 2.60 2.40
+0.50 1.49 1.42
+1.50 1.13 1.11
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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