Ilves vs HNK Rijeka Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ilves
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-0)
HNK Rijeka
Kick-off 16:00 Stadium Tammelan Stadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ilves opened at -0.75 against HNK Rijeka in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.23 / 1.37
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
—
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.75 · 2 / 8 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
—
No valid tradable market line
3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

No tradable main line at the time of the decision.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
—
No bookmaker currently offers a valid two-way pricing main.

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.75 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:22
Opening
-0.75
00:22
Last Pre-Match
-0.75
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.75
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.75 6.20 / 1.89 -0.75 6.20 / 1.89 — 0
Betfair DEEP +1.50 1.30 / 1.03 +1.50 1.30 / 1.03 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.64 / 1.54 -0.25 3.64 / 1.54 — 0
Bet365 -0.75 6.25 / 1.92 -0.75 6.25 / 1.92 — 0
1xBet +0.75 1.85 / 1.06 +0.75 1.85 / 1.06 — 0
Unibet +0.50 2.12 / 1.16 +0.50 2.12 / 1.16 — 0
Superbet +0.50 2.02 / 1.19 +0.50 2.02 / 1.19 — 0
BetVictor 0 3.35 / 1.26 0 3.35 / 1.26 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.80 3.45
-1.00 7.80 2.34
-0.75 6.20 1.99
-0.25 3.98 1.45
0 3.34 1.24
+0.25 2.42 1.17
+0.75 1.85 1.06
+1.00 1.55 1.04
+1.50 1.33 1.02

Bet365 Main —

AH Home Away
-0.75 6.25 1.92
-0.50 4.50 1.70
-0.25 4.00 1.50
0 3.45 1.30
+0.25 2.50 1.23
+0.50 2.10 1.19
+0.75 1.88 1.12

BetVictor Main —

AH Home Away
0 3.35 1.26

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 10.50 3.20
+1.50 1.30 1.03

Marathonbet Main —

AH Home Away
-0.75 6.20 1.89
-0.25 3.98 1.45
0 3.34 1.24
+0.25 2.42 1.17
+0.75 1.76 1.06

Pinnacle Main —

AH Home Away
-0.25 3.64 1.54
0 3.20 1.32
+0.25 2.39 1.26

Superbet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 9.80 3.05
-0.50 4.20 1.72
+0.50 2.02 1.19
+1.50 1.33 1.03

Unibet Main —

AH Home Away
-0.50 4.40 1.61
+0.50 2.12 1.16
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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