UD Logroñés vs Zaragoza Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

UD Logroñés
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 1-1)
Zaragoza
Kick-off 17:15

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

UD Logroñés opened at -0.25 against Zaragoza in the Friendlies Clubs. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.24 / 1.36
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
UD Logroñés -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.36
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.36 AH points more toward Zaragoza than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
UD Logroñés -0.25
@ 3.09
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.36
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.55
Price Advantage
+21.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.50
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:05
Opening
-0.25
16:18
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
17:14
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.20 / 1.55 -0.25 2.97 / 1.66 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 3.07 / 2.00 -0.50 3.05 / 2.01 -0.50 0
1xBet -0.25 3.15 / 1.65 -0.25 3.09 / 1.65 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.79 / 1.69 -0.25 2.81 / 1.69 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.30 3.58
-1.00 7.20 2.88
-0.25 3.09 1.65
0 2.63 1.44
+0.25 2.00 1.33
+1.00 1.35 1.03

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.81 1.69
0 2.41 1.44
+0.25 1.93 1.33

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.20 3.58
-1.00 7.10 2.88
-0.25 2.97 1.66
0 2.52 1.41
+0.25 1.99 1.30
+1.00 1.35 1.04
+1.50 1.21 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.05 2.01
-0.25 2.70 1.78
0 2.36 1.51
+0.25 1.94 1.38
+0.50 1.70 1.30
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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