Cienciano vs Botafogo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Cienciano
Final Score
6 – 1
(HT 4-0)
Botafogo
Kick-off 00:30 Stadium Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Cienciano opened at 0 against Botafogo in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 6 of 9 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.30 / 1.22
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Cienciano 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 6 / 10 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Cienciano than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

Price advantage is below the lean threshold.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
6 / 9 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:22
Opening
0
00:13
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.73 / 2.05 0 1.80 / 1.93 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.70 / 2.08 0 1.82 / 1.93 — 0
Betfair DEEP +1.50 1.11 / 1.14 +1.50 1.11 / 1.14 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.71 / 2.13 0 1.86 / 2.00 — 0
Bet365 0 1.72 / 2.08 0 1.92 / 1.92 — 0
1xBet 0 1.78 / 2.18 0 1.90 / 2.02 — 0
Unibet +0.50 1.37 / 1.53 -0.50 2.45 / 2.55 — -1.00
Betano +0.25 1.55 / 1.78 +0.25 1.62 / 1.70 — 0
Superbet +0.50 1.39 / 1.56 -0.50 2.32 / 2.87 — -1.00
BetVictor -0.25 1.98 / 2.42 0 1.82 / 1.85 — +0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.80 1.93

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.49 7.10
-1.50 4.95 5.40
-1.25 4.55 4.95
-1.00 4.10 4.55
-0.75 2.98 3.20
-0.25 2.27 2.26
0 1.90 2.02
+0.25 1.54 1.72
+0.75 1.26 1.31
+1.00 1.13 1.16
+1.25 1.11 1.13
+1.50 1.09 1.11
+1.75 1.04 1.05

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.25 5.75
-1.25 4.65 5.00
-1.00 4.25 4.50
-0.75 3.10 3.30
-0.50 2.50 2.60
-0.25 2.20 2.30
0 1.92 1.92
+0.25 1.60 1.65
+0.50 1.48 1.50
+0.75 1.32 1.35
+1.00 1.19 1.21
+1.25 1.17 1.18
+1.50 1.14 1.16

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.49 2.53
-0.25 2.15 2.20
0 1.82 1.85
+0.25 1.58 1.60
+0.50 1.44 1.45

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.20 3.40
-0.50 2.57 2.75
-0.25 2.22 2.37
+0.25 1.62 1.70
+0.50 1.47 1.53
+0.75 1.34 1.38

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.00 12.00
-1.50 5.00 6.00
+1.50 1.11 1.14
+2.50 1.02 1.03

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.50 7.10
-1.50 4.95 5.40
-1.25 4.55 4.95
-1.00 4.10 4.55
-0.75 2.98 3.22
-0.25 2.12 2.26
0 1.82 1.93
+0.25 1.54 1.61
+0.75 1.27 1.31
+1.00 1.13 1.16
+1.25 1.11 1.13
+1.50 1.09 1.11
+1.75 1.04 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.17 4.96
-0.75 3.11 3.45
-0.50 2.59 2.77
-0.25 2.22 2.38
0 1.86 2.00
+0.25 1.59 1.68
+0.50 1.45 1.51
+0.75 1.31 1.37
+1.00 1.18 1.23

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.65 5.90
-0.50 2.32 2.87
+0.50 1.39 1.56
+1.50 1.11 1.17

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.90 5.20
-0.50 2.45 2.55
+0.50 1.43 1.46
+1.50 1.11 1.12
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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