Shonan Bellmare vs Albirex Niigata Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Shonan Bellmare
Oct 11, 2026 - 09:00
1.58 1.23
Albirex Niigata
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Shonan Bellmare opened at -0.25 against Albirex Niigata in the J2 League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.32
Shonan Bellmare -0.32

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Shonan Bellmare -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Shonan Bellmare than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Albirex Niigata +0.25
@ 2.85
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.07
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.08
Price Advantage
+37.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.62 -0.25 1.81 / 2.62 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.89 / 2.85 -0.25 1.89 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.83 / 2.62 -0.25 1.83 / 2.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.32
xG 1.58 / 1.23 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.89
Shonan Bellmare @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.93
Shonan Bellmare @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.89 vs 1.93
Market price is 2.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.75 8.70
-1.50 4.33 7.40
-1.25 3.88 6.80
-1.00 3.34 6.25
-0.75 2.49 3.98
-0.25 1.83 2.62
0 1.54 2.25
+0.25 1.38 1.83
+0.75 1.17 1.42
+1.00 1.06 1.24
+1.25 1.04 1.18
+1.50 1.03 1.14

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.75 8.70
-1.50 4.33 7.40
-1.25 3.88 6.80
-1.00 3.34 6.25
-0.75 2.49 3.98
-0.25 1.81 2.62
0 1.54 2.25
+0.25 1.38 1.81
+0.75 1.17 1.42
+1.00 1.06 1.24
+1.25 1.04 1.18
+1.50 1.03 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.64 4.25
-0.50 2.20 3.29
-0.25 1.89 2.85
0 1.57 2.38
+0.25 1.41 1.91
+0.50 1.32 1.66
+0.75 1.21 1.47
Primary Bets
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