Iwaki vs Blaublitz Akita Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Iwaki
Oct 11, 2026 - 06:00
1.46 1.14
Blaublitz Akita
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Iwaki opened at -0.25 against Blaublitz Akita in the J2 League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
Iwaki -0.29

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Iwaki -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Iwaki than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Blaublitz Akita +0.25
@ 2.54
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.05
Price Advantage
+23.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.95 / 2.38 -0.25 1.95 / 2.38 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.70 / 2.12 0 1.70 / 2.12 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.97 / 2.38 -0.25 1.97 / 2.38 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
xG 1.46 / 1.14 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.95
Iwaki @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.96
Iwaki @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.95 vs 1.96
Market price is 0.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.15 8.20
-1.50 4.70 6.15
-1.25 4.24 5.65
-1.00 3.76 5.15
-0.75 2.70 3.48
-0.25 1.97 2.38
0 1.66 2.03
+0.25 1.46 1.70
+0.75 1.22 1.36
+1.00 1.10 1.19
+1.25 1.08 1.15
+1.50 1.06 1.12
+1.75 1.02 1.06

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.15 8.20
-1.50 4.70 6.15
-1.25 4.25 5.65
-1.00 3.76 5.15
-0.75 2.70 3.48
-0.25 1.95 2.38
0 1.66 2.03
+0.25 1.46 1.69
+0.75 1.22 1.36
+1.00 1.10 1.19
+1.25 1.08 1.15
+1.50 1.06 1.12
+1.75 1.02 1.06

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.97 4.87
-0.75 2.91 3.73
-0.50 2.40 2.94
-0.25 2.06 2.54
0 1.70 2.12
+0.25 1.50 1.76
+0.50 1.38 1.56
+0.75 1.26 1.40
+1.00 1.17 1.23
Primary Bets
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