Kataller Toyama vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Kataller Toyama
Oct 11, 2026 - 05:00
1.28 1.32
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Kataller Toyama opened at -0.25 against Tegevajaro Miyazaki in the J2 League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Kataller Toyama -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Tegevajaro Miyazaki than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Tegevajaro Miyazaki +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+76.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.70 / 2.74 -0.25 1.70 / 2.74 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.76 / 3.00 -0.25 1.76 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.70 / 2.74 -0.25 1.70 / 2.74 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
xG 1.28 / 1.32 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.76
Kataller Toyama @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.42
Kataller Toyama @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.76 vs 2.42
Market price is 27.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.42 6.50
-1.25 3.11 6.10
-1.00 2.78 5.70
-0.75 2.21 3.92
-0.25 1.70 2.74
0 1.46 2.38
+0.25 1.35 1.94
+0.75 1.18 1.53
+1.00 1.08 1.36
+1.25 1.06 1.29
+1.50 1.05 1.23

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.42 6.50
-1.25 3.08 6.10
-1.00 2.78 5.70
-0.75 2.21 3.92
-0.25 1.70 2.74
0 1.46 2.38
+0.25 1.35 1.94
+0.75 1.18 1.53
+1.00 1.08 1.36
+1.25 1.06 1.28
+1.50 1.05 1.23

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.03 3.43
-0.25 1.76 3.00
0 1.49 2.57
+0.25 1.37 2.05
+0.50 1.30 1.79
Primary Bets
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