Ventforet Kofu vs Tochigi City Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ventforet Kofu
Oct 10, 2026 - 07:00
1.27 1.33
Tochigi City
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ventforet Kofu opened at -0.25 against Tochigi City in the J2 League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ventforet Kofu -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Tochigi City than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Tochigi City +0.25
@ 1.90
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+12.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.52 / 1.81 -0.25 2.52 / 1.81 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.66 / 1.90 -0.25 2.66 / 1.90 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.55 / 1.81 -0.25 2.55 / 1.81 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
xG 1.27 / 1.33 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.66
Ventforet Kofu @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.45
Ventforet Kofu @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.66 vs 2.45
Market price is 8.6% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 5.20
-1.50 6.40 4.00
-1.25 5.89 3.58
-1.00 5.35 3.14
-0.75 3.58 2.43
-0.25 2.55 1.81
0 2.19 1.57
+0.25 1.81 1.43
+0.75 1.44 1.21
+1.00 1.27 1.09
+1.25 1.21 1.07
+1.50 1.17 1.05

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 5.20
-1.50 6.40 4.00
-1.25 5.90 3.58
-1.00 5.35 3.14
-0.75 3.58 2.43
-0.25 2.52 1.81
0 2.19 1.57
+0.25 1.81 1.41
+0.75 1.44 1.21
+1.00 1.27 1.09
+1.25 1.21 1.07
+1.50 1.17 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.78 2.55
-0.50 3.02 2.17
-0.25 2.66 1.90
0 2.28 1.62
+0.25 1.90 1.46
+0.50 1.68 1.37
+0.75 1.50 1.25
Primary Bets
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