Vegalta Sendai vs Jubilo Iwata Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Vegalta Sendai
Oct 04, 2026 - 06:00
1.32 1.28
Jubilo Iwata
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Vegalta Sendai opened at -0.25 against Jubilo Iwata in the J2 League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Vegalta Sendai -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Jubilo Iwata than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Jubilo Iwata +0.25
@ 2.60
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+46.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.90 / 2.41 -0.25 1.89 / 2.42 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.51 / 1.81 +0.25 1.51 / 1.81 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.60 -0.25 1.98 / 2.60 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.92 / 2.41 -0.25 1.91 / 2.42 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.98 / 2.47 -0.25 1.95 / 2.50 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.89
Vegalta Sendai @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Vegalta Sendai @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.89 vs 2.30
Market price is 17.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.79 8.30
-1.50 4.40 6.15
-1.25 3.98 5.69
-1.00 3.50 5.20
-0.75 2.59 3.50
-0.25 1.91 2.42
0 1.63 2.08
+0.25 1.44 1.76
+0.75 1.22 1.39
+1.00 1.10 1.22
+1.25 1.08 1.17
+1.50 1.06 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.07

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 6.60
-1.25 4.00 6.00
-1.00 3.55 5.75
-0.75 2.68 3.70
-0.50 2.25 3.00
-0.25 1.98 2.60
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.48 1.82
+0.50 1.38 1.62
+0.75 1.26 1.45
+1.00 1.14 1.27
+1.25 1.12 1.23
+1.50 1.11 1.20

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.95 2.50
+0.25 1.50 1.78

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.80 8.30
-1.50 4.40 6.15
-1.25 3.98 5.70
-1.00 3.50 5.20
-0.75 2.59 3.50
-0.25 1.89 2.42
0 1.63 2.08
+0.25 1.44 1.74
+0.75 1.22 1.39
+1.00 1.10 1.22
+1.25 1.08 1.17
+1.50 1.06 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.07

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.74 3.65
-0.50 2.29 2.90
-0.25 2.00 2.54
0 1.68 2.16
+0.25 1.51 1.81
+0.50 1.39 1.61
+0.75 1.27 1.44
Primary Bets
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