Blaublitz Akita vs Sagan Tosu Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Blaublitz Akita
Oct 04, 2026 - 05:00
1.26 1.34
Sagan Tosu
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Blaublitz Akita opened at -0.25 against Sagan Tosu in the J2 League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Blaublitz Akita -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward Sagan Tosu than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Sagan Tosu +0.25
@ 1.95
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+16.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.56 / 1.86 -0.25 2.59 / 1.85 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.75 / 1.97 -0.25 2.77 / 1.95 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.68 / 1.95 -0.25 2.68 / 1.95 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.59 / 1.86 -0.25 2.62 / 1.85 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.57 / 1.95 -0.25 2.65 / 1.93 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.62 / 1.88 -0.25 2.62 / 1.88 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
xG 1.26 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.77
Blaublitz Akita @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.48
Blaublitz Akita @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.77 vs 2.48
Market price is 11.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 5.80
-1.50 6.90 4.45
-1.25 6.40 3.98
-1.00 5.90 3.50
-0.75 3.85 2.59
-0.25 2.62 1.85
0 2.19 1.57
+0.25 1.77 1.40
+0.75 1.39 1.18
+1.00 1.22 1.07
+1.25 1.17 1.05
+1.50 1.14 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 6.60 4.00
-1.00 6.00 3.55
-0.75 3.90 2.68
-0.50 3.10 2.25
-0.25 2.68 1.95
0 2.30 1.60
+0.25 1.85 1.45
+0.50 1.62 1.35
+0.75 1.45 1.24
+1.00 1.27 1.12
+1.25 1.23 1.11

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.62 1.88
0 2.21 1.57
+0.25 1.79 1.41

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.65 1.93
+0.25 1.82 1.45

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.30 5.80
-1.50 6.90 4.45
-1.25 6.40 3.98
-1.00 5.90 3.50
-0.75 3.85 2.59
-0.25 2.59 1.85
0 2.19 1.57
+0.25 1.77 1.39
+0.75 1.39 1.18
+1.00 1.22 1.07
+1.25 1.17 1.05
+1.50 1.14 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.14 2.75
-0.50 3.21 2.28
-0.25 2.77 1.95
0 2.30 1.61
+0.25 1.85 1.43
+0.50 1.62 1.33
+0.75 1.44 1.22
Primary Bets
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