Albirex Niigata vs Tokushima Vortis Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Albirex Niigata
Oct 03, 2026 - 05:00
1.23 1.37
Tokushima Vortis
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Albirex Niigata opened at 0 against Tokushima Vortis in the J2 League. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Albirex Niigata 0
Model–Market Gap
0.12
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.12 AH points more toward Tokushima Vortis than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Tokushima Vortis 0
@ 2.02
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.12
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.84
Price Advantage
+9.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.75 / 1.91 0 1.74 / 1.93 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.81 / 1.99 0 1.80 / 2.02 — 0
Bet365 0 1.80 / 2.00 0 1.80 / 2.00 — 0
1xBet 0 1.75 / 1.91 0 1.74 / 1.93 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.15 / 2.30 -0.25 2.12 / 2.32 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.75 / 1.93 0 1.75 / 1.93 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
xG 1.23 / 1.37 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.80
Albirex Niigata @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.20
Albirex Niigata @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.80 vs 2.20
Market price is 18.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.95 8.00
-1.50 5.25 5.95
-1.25 4.75 5.44
-1.00 4.25 4.95
-0.75 2.92 3.28
-0.25 2.09 2.28
0 1.74 1.93
+0.25 1.50 1.63
+0.75 1.25 1.31
+1.00 1.11 1.15
+1.25 1.08 1.12
+1.50 1.07 1.09
+1.75 1.02 1.04

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.50 6.25
-1.25 5.00 5.75
-1.00 4.40 5.25
-0.75 3.10 3.45
-0.50 2.50 2.75
-0.25 2.15 2.38
0 1.80 2.00
+0.25 1.55 1.68
+0.50 1.42 1.50
+0.75 1.30 1.35
+1.00 1.16 1.20
+1.25 1.14 1.17
+1.50 1.12 1.15

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.45 2.70
-0.25 2.10 2.31
0 1.75 1.93
+0.25 1.52 1.63
+0.50 1.39 1.47

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.47 2.67
-0.25 2.12 2.32
+0.25 1.57 1.67
+0.50 1.44 1.50

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.95 8.00
-1.50 5.25 5.95
-1.25 4.75 5.45
-1.00 4.25 4.95
-0.75 2.92 3.28
-0.25 2.07 2.28
0 1.74 1.93
+0.25 1.50 1.61
+0.75 1.25 1.31
+1.00 1.11 1.15
+1.25 1.08 1.12
+1.50 1.07 1.09
+1.75 1.02 1.04

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.46 5.29
-0.75 3.13 3.57
-0.50 2.54 2.84
-0.25 2.17 2.43
0 1.80 2.02
+0.25 1.55 1.68
+0.50 1.41 1.51
+0.75 1.28 1.34
+1.00 1.15 1.20
Primary Bets
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