Santos vs Macara Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Santos
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 1-1)
Macara
Kick-off 22:00 Stadium Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Santos opened at -0.50 against Macara in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.27 / 1.23
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
—
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.50 · 3 / 7 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
—
No valid tradable market line
3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

No tradable main line at the time of the decision.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
—
No bookmaker currently offers a valid two-way pricing main.

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.50 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:22
Opening
-0.50
02:22
Last Pre-Match
-0.50
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.21 / 6.80 -0.25 1.21 / 6.80 — 0
Betfair DEEP -1.50 2.10 / 13.00 -1.50 2.10 / 13.00 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.18 / 4.55 0 1.18 / 4.55 — 0
Bet365 -0.50 1.40 / 7.00 -0.50 1.40 / 7.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.21 / 6.80 -0.25 1.21 / 6.80 — 0
Unibet -0.50 1.35 / 6.00 -0.50 1.35 / 6.00 — 0
Superbet -0.50 1.40 / 6.20 -0.50 1.40 / 6.20 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main —

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.21 6.80
0 1.07 6.30
+0.25 1.04 3.58

Bet365 Main —

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.40 7.00
-0.25 1.26 6.40
0 1.14 5.75
+0.25 1.12 3.70
+0.50 1.10 2.85

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.10 13.00

Marathonbet Main —

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.21 6.80
0 1.06 6.30
+0.25 1.04 3.58

Pinnacle Main —

AH Home Away
0 1.18 4.55

Superbet Main —

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.40 6.20
+0.50 1.10 2.82

Unibet Main —

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.35 6.00
+0.50 1.08 2.85
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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