SC Braga B vs Tirsense Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

SC Braga B
Oct 11, 2026 - 14:00
1.27 1.33
Tirsense
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

SC Braga B opened at -0.25 against Tirsense in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
SC Braga B -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Tirsense than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Tirsense +0.25
@ 2.92
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+72.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.65 / 2.97 -0.25 1.70 / 2.92 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.81 / 2.80 -0.25 1.81 / 2.80 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.67 / 2.97 -0.25 1.71 / 2.92 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
xG 1.27 / 1.33 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.81
SC Braga B @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.45
SC Braga B @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.81 vs 2.45
Market price is 26.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.85 7.80
-1.00 3.04 6.90
-0.75 2.30 4.40
-0.25 1.71 2.92
0 1.44 2.50
+0.25 1.31 1.96
+0.75 1.14 1.49
+1.00 1.04 1.29
+1.50 1.02 1.18

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.85 7.80
-1.00 3.04 6.90
-0.75 2.30 4.40
-0.25 1.70 2.92
0 1.44 2.50
+0.25 1.31 1.94
+0.75 1.14 1.49
+1.00 1.04 1.29
+1.50 1.02 1.18

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.09 3.21
-0.25 1.81 2.80
0 1.50 2.39
+0.25 1.35 1.90
+0.50 1.27 1.65
Primary Bets
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