USA W vs Spain W Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

USA W
Final Score
2 – 2
(HT 0-2)
Spain W
Kick-off 23:00 Stadium Subaru Park

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

USA W opened at 0 against Spain W in the Friendlies Women. The current market consensus is -0.25. The closing line is +0.50. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward USA W from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 6 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.27
USA W -0.27

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.45 / 1.15
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
USA W -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward USA W than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
USA W -0.25
@ 2.47
Best Available Price · BetVictor
Line Edge
0.02
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.98
Price Advantage
+24.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 6 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → +0.50
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
+0.50
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:04
Opening
0
20:05
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
23:59
PRE1
+0.50
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.89 / 1.77 -0.25 2.38 / 1.86 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.94 / 1.81 0 2.08 / 1.71 — 0
Bet365 0 1.98 / 1.82 0 2.05 / 1.75 — 0
1xBet 0 1.89 / 1.77 -0.25 2.39 / 1.88 — -0.25
Betano -0.50 2.55 / 2.40 -0.50 2.67 / 2.15 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.90 / 1.78 -0.25 2.47 / 1.89 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.80 5.35
-1.50 5.85 4.15
-1.25 5.35 3.72
-1.00 4.90 3.28
-0.75 3.35 2.53
-0.25 2.39 1.88
0 2.08 1.63
+0.25 1.78 1.47
+0.75 1.42 1.24
+1.00 1.25 1.11
+1.25 1.20 1.09
+1.50 1.16 1.07
+1.75 1.09 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 5.50
-1.50 5.50 4.15
-1.25 4.80 3.80
-1.00 4.40 3.45
-0.75 3.30 2.68
-0.50 2.68 2.30
-0.25 2.38 1.98
0 2.05 1.75
+0.25 1.82 1.55
+0.50 1.60 1.45
+0.75 1.45 1.32
+1.00 1.30 1.20
+1.25 1.25 1.18
+1.50 1.22 1.15
+1.75 1.15 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.72 2.15
-0.25 2.47 1.89
0 2.12 1.62
+0.25 1.78 1.46
+0.50 1.60 1.39

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.67 2.15
+0.50 1.65 1.44

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.80 5.35
-1.50 5.85 4.15
-1.25 5.35 3.72
-1.00 4.90 3.28
-0.75 3.34 2.52
-0.25 2.38 1.86
0 2.08 1.63
+0.25 1.76 1.46
+0.75 1.41 1.24
+1.00 1.25 1.11
+1.25 1.20 1.09
+1.50 1.16 1.07
+1.75 1.09 1.02

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.08 2.56
-0.50 2.65 2.21
-0.25 2.36 1.98
0 2.08 1.71
+0.25 1.81 1.54
+0.50 1.63 1.43
+0.75 1.46 1.32
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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