Kilmarnock vs Ayr Utd Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Kilmarnock
Final Score
3 – 2
(HT 1-1)
Ayr Utd
Kick-off 18:45 Stadium Rugby Park

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Kilmarnock opened at +0.75 against Ayr Utd in the League Cup. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.28 / 1.32
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
—
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
+0.75 · 2 / 7 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
—
No valid tradable market line
3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

No tradable main line at the time of the decision.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
—
No bookmaker currently offers a valid two-way pricing main.

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
+0.75 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:15
Opening
+0.75
00:15
Last Pre-Match
+0.75
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK +0.75
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK +0.75 1.06 / 1.93 +0.75 1.06 / 1.93 — 0
Betfair DEEP +1.50 1.03 / 1.44 +1.50 1.03 / 1.44 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.29 / 3.13 0 1.29 / 3.13 — 0
Bet365 -0.75 1.82 / 6.00 -0.75 1.82 / 6.00 — 0
1xBet +0.75 1.06 / 1.92 +0.75 1.06 / 1.92 — 0
Unibet -0.50 1.55 / 4.60 -0.50 1.55 / 4.60 — 0
Superbet +0.50 1.17 / 2.17 +0.50 1.17 / 2.17 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.68 9.30
-1.00 2.06 8.30
-0.75 1.72 6.05
-0.25 1.38 4.05
0 1.21 3.58
+0.25 1.16 2.64
+0.75 1.06 1.92
+1.00 1.04 1.70
+1.50 1.03 1.37

Bet365 Main —

AH Home Away
-0.75 1.82 6.00
-0.50 1.65 4.40
-0.25 1.48 4.00
0 1.27 3.55
+0.25 1.23 2.60
+0.50 1.20 2.20
+0.75 1.12 1.98

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.63 10.00
+1.50 1.03 1.44

Marathonbet Main —

AH Home Away
-0.75 1.73 6.05
-0.25 1.38 4.05
0 1.21 3.58
+0.25 1.16 2.64
+0.75 1.06 1.93

Pinnacle Main —

AH Home Away
0 1.29 3.13

Superbet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.70 10.00
-0.50 1.62 4.40
+0.50 1.17 2.17
+1.50 1.03 1.41

Unibet Main —

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.55 4.60
+0.50 1.14 2.25
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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