Aris vs AEK Larnaca Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Aris
Oct 18, 2026 - 16:00
1.26 1.34
AEK Larnaca
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Aris opened at -0.25 against AEK Larnaca in the 1. Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Aris -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward AEK Larnaca than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
AEK Larnaca +0.25
@ 1.95
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+16.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.49 / 1.85 -0.25 2.46 / 1.85 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.60 / 1.95 -0.25 2.60 / 1.95 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.54 / 1.85 -0.25 2.51 / 1.85 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
xG 1.26 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.46
Aris @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.48
Aris @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.46 vs 2.48
Market price is 0.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.65 5.05
-1.50 5.80 3.96
-1.25 5.39 3.58
-1.00 4.95 3.20
-0.75 3.48 2.46
-0.25 2.51 1.85
0 2.17 1.62
+0.25 1.78 1.47
+0.75 1.43 1.22
+1.00 1.26 1.11
+1.25 1.21 1.09
+1.50 1.17 1.07
+1.75 1.10 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.90 3.90
-1.25 5.50 3.55
-1.00 5.00 3.30
-0.75 3.55 2.50
-0.50 3.00 2.20
-0.25 2.60 1.95
+0.25 1.85 1.48
+0.50 1.65 1.38
+0.75 1.50 1.27
+1.00 1.32 1.17
+1.25 1.27 1.15
+1.50 1.24 1.13

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.70 5.05
-1.50 5.80 3.96
-1.25 5.40 3.58
-1.00 4.95 3.20
-0.75 3.48 2.46
-0.25 2.46 1.85
0 2.17 1.62
+0.25 1.78 1.44
+0.75 1.43 1.22
+1.00 1.26 1.11
+1.25 1.21 1.09
+1.50 1.17 1.07
+1.75 1.10 1.03
Primary Bets
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