Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Abha
Oct 11, 2026 - 15:25
1.47 1.31
Al-Faisaly FC
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Abha opened at -0.25 against Al-Faisaly FC in the Pro League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
Abha -0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Abha -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Al-Faisaly FC than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Al-Faisaly FC +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.88
Price Advantage
+59.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.72 / 2.70 -0.25 1.72 / 2.70 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.78 / 2.99 -0.25 1.78 / 2.99 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.78 / 2.70 -0.25 1.78 / 2.70 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.80 / 3.00 -0.25 1.80 / 3.00 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
xG 1.47 / 1.31 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.78
Abha @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.13
Abha @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.78 vs 2.13
Market price is 16.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.75 8.90
-1.50 3.74 6.80
-1.25 3.34 6.40
-1.00 2.92 5.95
-0.75 2.28 3.96
-0.25 1.78 2.70
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.36 1.97
+0.75 1.17 1.50
+1.00 1.07 1.31
+1.25 1.05 1.24
+1.50 1.04 1.19

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.07 3.40
-0.25 1.80 3.00
+0.25 1.42 2.07
+0.50 1.34 1.80

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.75 8.90
-1.50 3.74 6.80
-1.25 3.34 6.40
-1.00 2.92 5.95
-0.75 2.28 3.96
-0.25 1.72 2.70
0 1.49 2.36
+0.25 1.36 1.91
+0.75 1.17 1.50
+1.00 1.07 1.31
+1.25 1.05 1.24
+1.50 1.04 1.19

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.39 4.38
-0.50 2.04 3.40
-0.25 1.78 2.99
0 1.50 2.55
+0.25 1.38 2.04
+0.50 1.30 1.76
+0.75 1.20 1.56
Primary Bets
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