Al Riyadh vs NEOM Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Al Riyadh
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 0-0)
NEOM
Kick-off 15:50 Stadium Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Al Riyadh opened at -0.25 against NEOM in the Pro League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 7 valid books, with 71% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.70
Al Riyadh +0.70

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.12 / 1.86
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Al Riyadh -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 7 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.95
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.95 AH points more toward NEOM than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
NEOM +0.25
@ 1.78
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.95
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.34
Price Advantage
+32.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 7 valid books · 71% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
09:06
Opening
-0.25
15:02
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.88 / 1.65 -0.25 3.04 / 1.61 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.03 / 1.73 -0.25 3.08 / 1.74 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.85 / 1.78 -0.25 3.00 / 1.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.03 / 1.65 -0.25 3.03 / 1.65 — 0
Unibet -0.50 3.20 / 1.88 -0.50 3.20 / 1.88 — 0
Betano -0.25 3.00 / 1.78 -0.25 3.05 / 1.78 — 0
Superbet -0.50 3.20 / 1.97 -0.50 3.20 / 1.97 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.60 3.42
-1.25 7.09 3.08
-1.00 6.55 2.73
-0.75 4.30 2.18
-0.25 3.03 1.65
0 2.57 1.47
+0.25 2.00 1.35
+0.75 1.58 1.15
+1.00 1.38 1.05
+1.25 1.28 1.04
+1.50 1.23 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 3.55
-1.25 6.80 3.30
-1.00 6.25 2.75
-0.75 4.15 2.30
-0.50 3.30 1.95
-0.25 3.00 1.75
0 2.50 1.50
+0.25 2.05 1.38
+0.50 1.85 1.32
+0.75 1.60 1.22
+1.00 1.42 1.12
+1.25 1.32 1.10
+1.50 1.27 1.10

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 3.05 1.78
+0.25 2.10 1.40

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.90 3.28
-1.25 7.40 2.97
-1.00 6.90 2.62
-0.75 4.45 2.10
-0.25 3.04 1.61
0 2.59 1.39
+0.25 2.07 1.29
+0.75 1.59 1.14
+1.00 1.41 1.04
+1.25 1.30 1.03
+1.50 1.25 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.50 2.00
-0.25 3.08 1.74
0 2.66 1.48
+0.25 2.12 1.37
+0.50 1.84 1.30

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.50 3.50
-0.50 3.20 1.97
+0.50 1.74 1.30
+1.50 1.26 1.08

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.20 1.88
+0.50 1.79 1.28
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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