Uttaradit vs Satun Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Uttaradit
Oct 15, 2026 - 11:00
1.32 1.28
Satun
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Uttaradit opened at 0 against Satun in the Thai League 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Uttaradit from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Uttaradit -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Satun than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Satun +0.25
@ 2.47
Best Available Price · BetVictor
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+39.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.93 / 1.74 -0.25 1.89 / 2.38 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.85 / 2.64 -0.25 1.97 / 2.44 — 0
Bet365 0 2.00 / 1.80 0 2.00 / 1.80 — 0
1xBet 0 1.93 / 1.74 -0.25 1.90 / 2.38 — -0.25
BetVictor 0 1.92 / 1.76 -0.25 1.92 / 2.47 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.97
Uttaradit @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Uttaradit @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.97 vs 2.30
Market price is 14.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.50 8.80
-2.00 7.80 7.80
-1.50 4.15 5.65
-1.25 3.78 3.88
-1.00 3.34 4.80
-0.75 2.56 3.34
-0.25 1.90 2.38
0 1.64 2.06
+0.25 1.46 1.75
+0.75 1.24 1.40
+1.00 1.11 1.24
+1.25 1.18 1.19
+1.50 1.08 1.16
+2.00 1.02 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 2.00 1.80

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.20 2.31
-0.25 1.92 2.47
0 1.63 2.10
+0.25 1.46 1.76
+0.50 1.52 1.57

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 7.80 7.80
-1.50 4.15 5.65
-1.25 3.78 3.88
-1.00 3.34 4.80
-0.75 2.56 3.34
-0.25 1.89 2.38
0 1.64 2.06
+0.25 1.46 1.74
+0.75 1.24 1.40
+1.00 1.11 1.24
+1.25 1.18 1.19
+1.50 1.08 1.16
+2.00 1.02 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.24 2.78
-0.25 1.97 2.44
0 1.67 2.11
+0.25 1.49 1.79
+0.50 1.38 1.60
Primary Bets
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