Satun vs Khon Kaen United Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Satun
Oct 11, 2026 - 11:00
1.32 1.28
Khon Kaen United
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Satun opened at -0.25 against Khon Kaen United in the Thai League 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Satun -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Khon Kaen United than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Khon Kaen United +0.25
@ 2.32
Best Available Price · BetVictor
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+31.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.92 / 2.28 -0.25 1.92 / 2.28 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.94 / 2.28 -0.25 1.94 / 2.28 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.95 / 2.39 0 1.70 / 1.99 — +0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.92
Satun @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Satun @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.92 vs 2.30
Market price is 16.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.30 5.40
-1.00 3.42 4.55
-0.75 2.59 3.20
-0.25 1.94 2.28
0 1.68 2.00
+0.25 1.50 1.73
+0.75 1.26 1.39
+1.00 1.13 1.23
+1.50 1.09 1.15

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.28 2.66
-0.25 1.99 2.32
0 1.70 1.99
+0.25 1.52 1.70
+0.50 1.40 1.53

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.30 5.40
-1.00 3.42 4.55
-0.75 2.59 3.20
-0.25 1.92 2.28
0 1.68 2.00
+0.25 1.50 1.71
+0.75 1.26 1.39
+1.00 1.13 1.23
+1.50 1.09 1.15
Primary Bets
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