Young Apostles vs Aduana Stars Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Young Apostles
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Aduana Stars
Kick-off 15:00 Stadium Wenchi Sports Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Young Apostles opened at -0.25 against Aduana Stars in the Premier League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.31 / 1.29
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Young Apostles -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Aduana Stars than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Aduana Stars +0.25
@ 3.03
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+73.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
06:49
Opening
-0.25
14:29
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.75 / 2.83 -0.25 1.73 / 2.88 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.78 / 2.99 -0.25 1.79 / 3.03 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.76 / 2.83 -0.25 1.74 / 2.88 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.20 8.20
-1.00 3.20 7.20
-0.75 2.38 4.44
-0.25 1.74 2.88
0 1.45 2.47
+0.25 1.32 1.92
+0.75 1.14 1.46
+1.00 1.03 1.26
+1.50 1.02 1.16

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.20 8.20
-1.00 3.20 7.20
-0.75 2.38 4.45
-0.25 1.73 2.88
0 1.45 2.47
+0.25 1.32 1.90
+0.75 1.14 1.46
+1.00 1.03 1.26
+1.50 1.02 1.16

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.09 3.51
-0.25 1.79 3.03
0 1.46 2.55
+0.25 1.32 1.96
+0.50 1.24 1.67
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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